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Web Search on Cell Phones

Trend: Web advertisers will increasingly rely on personalization because cell phone screens are too small to display many ads.

Businessweek describes the future of online advertising on small screens and the Google's strategy to adapt. Excerpts below.

Link: The Real Threat to Google.

As more people use cell phones and their tiny glass screens to gain access to the Internet, Google and its fellow online advertisers will have less space, or what's called ad inventory, to place marketing messages for customers. Google makes money selling ad inventory. And its ad inventory is diminished on a cell phone.

Google can now fit about 10 ads on a standard computer screen. (If you look at Google search results on a PC monitor, paid ads are the listings at the very top and along the right.) But on your cell phone, if you type in a search query at google.com you get only one or two paid ads in response.

Almost two-thirds of Americans have had some experience with mobile Internet use, and the adoption trend is most pronounced among teens and young adults, according to Pew Research Center. About 60% of adults 18 to 29 use text messaging every day, compared with only 14% of their parents. Nearly one-third of young adults use mobile Internet. This is the future, because people take their media habits with them as they age.

Google will try to expand ad "shelf space," especially by redesigning cell-phone software. In November, Google announced it was launching an Open Handset Alliance to design a new operating system, code-named Android, which would provide a "truly open and comprehensive platform" for cell-phone users. A few scratched their heads as to why Google would get into the cell-phone interface business. But now it's clear; Web screens will soon be two inches wide, and Google wants a say in what fits on that tiny screen.

Continue reading "Web Search on Cell Phones" »

U.S. Dollar Purchasing Power and Commodity Prices

Trend: Increasing demand and prices for fuel and food and a declining dollar have undermined consumer confidence.

The real estate decline has not helped.

Link: Alfred Capital Insights » Blog Archive » Is Inflation Here to Stay?.

Fuel

Access to Clean, Fresh Water

Trend: The supply of clean, fresh water is shrinking as the demand for that water is increasing.

The Oil Drum describes why the availability of clean, fresh water supply is threatened. Excerpts below.

Australia's recent bout of intense drought has had an impact on global agricultural production and subsequently on a number of global commodity prices - rice being the most recent example. The United States has also started to experience issues with water supplies in both the southeast and southwest.

Link: The Oil Drum | Solving Our Water Problems - Desalination Using Solar Thermal Power.

Access to fresh, clean water has increasingly become an issue worldwide in recent years, as a number of factors come into play affecting both supply and demand:

  • Population is increasing - and most rapidly in drier regions
  • People have become wealthier and accustomed to using more water
  • Polluted water has become more common, as large swathes of the developing world industrialise
  • Ever increasing demand for power (and newer forms of energy like biofuels or coal to liquids plants)
  • Groundwater aquifers have been depleted by irrigation for agriculture
  • The water industry is mostly made up of public utilities that have often been starved of new investment funds
  • Climate change has impacted rain patterns, reducing rainfall levels and increasing the frequency and intensity of droughts
  • Melting glaciers have reduced water flows
  • Water has been cheap, so there is little incentive to conserve it

Best Performing ETFs for the Past Week (2008-05-02)

Trend: Ultra Telecommunications ProShares (LTL) led the one week performance (+9%, n/a for 4 weeks, n/a for 13 weeks). Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) and iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) were the second and third best performers.

The 20 ETFs with the best 1 week performance through 5/2/2008 tracked by Morningstar are highlighted below.

Source: MSN Money Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Performance Tracker

Name Ticker Category Holdings Morningstar Last Price* 1-Wk 4-Wks 13-Wks YTD 52-Wks 3-Yrs 5-Yrs
Ultra Telecommunications ProShares LTL Specialty - Communications $82.89 8.62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ultra QQQ ProShares QLD Growth holdings $86.85 7.49 13.75 12.06 -12.47 0.23 N/A N/A
iShares MSCI Brazil Index EWZ Foreign Stock holdings 5 stars $93.40 6.62 14.74 19.82 15.74 76.90 64.49 58.81
UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares SMN Specialty - Unaligned holdings $32.93 6.57 -10.88 -19.84 -18.78 -42.50 N/A N/A
PowerShares FTSE RAFI Japan PJO Pacific Stock holdings $47.87 6.45 8.80 3.61 -4.55 N/A N/A N/A
HealthShares Cardiology HRD Specialty - Health holdings $24.53 6.28 14.47 16.04 9.02 -4.11 N/A N/A
DB Gold Double Short ETN DZZ Specialty - Precious Metals $31.07 6.00 11.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ultra Semiconductor ProShares USD Specialty - Technology holdings $58.09 5.91 14.92 9.31 -17.94 -22.20 N/A N/A
HealthShares Patient Care Services HHB Specialty - Health holdings $23.01 5.70 3.93 -3.92 -8.87 -14.05 N/A N/A
HealthShares Dermatology & Wound Care HRW Specialty - Health holdings $22.40 5.66 12.34 6.62 -0.22 -10.67 N/A N/A
Ultra Russell MidCap Value Proshares UVU Growth holdings $50.83 5.60 7.11 0.45 -6.80 -28.10 N/A N/A
Rydex 2x S&P MidCap 400 RMM Growth holdings $67.41 5.51 18.48 4.54 -5.31 N/A N/A N/A
Wireless HOLDRs WMH Specialty - Technology holdings $65.56 5.46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 6.92 N/A
Ultra Financials ProShares UYG Specialty - Financial holdings $35.88 5.41 6.31 -13.97 -13.37 -47.62 N/A N/A
First Trust Multi Cap Value AlphaDEX FAB Growth holdings $25.58 5.31 2.28 -1.20 -1.54 N/A N/A N/A
Adelante Shares RE Shelter ETF AQS Specialty - Real Estate holdings $21.85 5.15 2.63 9.52 7.58 N/A N/A N/A
Ultra Technology ProShares ROM Specialty - Technology holdings $67.29 4.94 13.64 7.91 -16.87 -6.28 N/A N/A
PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China PGJ Diversified Emerging Markets holdings 2 stars $29.72 4.91 12.58 2.87 -13.23 38.02 33.17 N/A
Opta S&P Listed Private Equity NR ETN PPE Growth $51.23 4.83 2.26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
iShares Dow Jones US Telecom IYZ Specialty - Communications holdings 2 stars $26.08 4.78 8.89 -1.11 -11.03 -17.22 7.42 9.44

Disclosure: We may own any EFT above at any time.

Please verify the performance of any ETF before investing.

Corn Crop Shortfall this Year?

Trend: Grain crop harvests, especially corn, may fall far short of normal in the United States in 2008, with some unpleasant consequences.

John Maudlin, in his Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter, describes some troubling trends for agriculture and food production. Excerpts below.

Link: Thoughts from the Frontline.

Donald Coxe, chief strategist of Harris Investment Management ... shared a statistic.... North America has experienced great weather for the last 18 consecutive years, which, combined with other improvements in agriculture, has resulted in abundant crops. According to Don, you have to go back 800 years to find a period of such favorable weather for so long a time.

Yet food stocks in corn, wheat, rice, etc. are dangerously low. We are just one bad weather season from a potential worldwide food disaster. And Dennis Gartman has been pointing out almost daily how far behind US farmers are in getting their corn crops planted, due to bad weather:

"... the corn crop really is behind schedule. Corn is not like wheat. Wheat can survive drought; it can survive cold; wheat, as we were taught by our mentor, Mr. Melvin Ford, many years ago, is a weed. It is an amazing, resilient plant. But corn is temperamental; it needs rain when it needs rain; it needs dry conditions when it needs dry conditions. It needs to not be hit by early season frost, or it will suffer, and it needs a rather archly set number of days to grow. Each day lost at the front end of the planting/growing season puts pressure upon the corn plant to finish its job before the autumn frosts, and puts increased soybean acreage and decreased corn acreage before us.

Continue reading "Corn Crop Shortfall this Year?" »

Leveraged Gold ETFs: Better than Gold Stocks?

Trend: Several new leveraged gold ETFs offer alternative ways for investors to profit from moves in gold prices.

Sam Kirtley explains why he is intrigued by the new leveraged gold ETFs. Excerpts below.

Link: Leveraged Gold ETFs: The End of Gold Stocks - Seeking Alpha.

We do not see the reason to own gold stocks if an ETF is going to offer you decent leverage that is actually tied to the gold price, not to a company’s press releases. Remember a stock can be affected by rising production costs and political instability in area of mining. In addition to this if one is not investing in mining companies, one does not have to devote time to the analysis of geological results, management teams, balance sheets and company operations. This leaves more time for gold itself, the general market and the economy, which should lead to better investment decisions as one can concentrate on the precious metals bull market, rather than company details.

So we see very little reason to buy positions in gold stocks in the future and we are going to give some serious thought to moving from mining companies to leveraged ETFs over the coming months. If 200% exposure isn’t enough, then one can always buy on margin and increase that leverage to 400%. One can also go short by buying an inverse ETF, allowing one to profit from both the ups and downs of the bull. Gold stocks may get a boost in the final leg of the bull market though, as “the herd” stampedes in and forks out cash for anything that glitters. And of course, the gold mining companies will still make a lot of money as gold prices continue to rise, but we feel the ETFs offer a slightly better deal. Also, bear in mind that the 200% leverage offered by ETFs is a mathematical relationship, whereas the leverage from mining stocks is a rough estimate of what might happen, in other words: a hopeful guess.

The comments to this article offer some insights worth noting....

Continue reading "Leveraged Gold ETFs: Better than Gold Stocks?" »

Biofuel Crops: A Clean Energy Scam?

Trend: Growing crops for biofuel is based on bad science but the negative effects are looming large.

A Time magazine article asserts that crops grown for fuel are an economic and environmental disaster. Excerpts below.

Link: The Clean Energy Scam - TIME.

...the biofuel boom is doing exactly the opposite of what its proponents intended: it's dramatically accelerating global warming, imperiling the planet in the name of saving it. Corn ethanol, always environmentally suspect, turns out to be environmentally disastrous. Even cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass, which has been promoted by eco-activists and eco-investors as well as by President Bush as the fuel of the future, looks less green than oil-derived gasoline.

Meanwhile, by diverting grain and oilseed crops from dinner plates to fuel tanks, biofuels are jacking up world food prices and endangering the hungry. The grain it takes to fill an SUV tank with ethanol could feed a person for a year. Harvests are being plucked to fuel our cars instead of ourselves. The U.N.'s World Food Program says it needs $500 million in additional funding and supplies, calling the rising costs for food nothing less than a global emergency. Soaring corn prices have sparked tortilla riots in Mexico City, and skyrocketing flour prices have destabilized Pakistan, which wasn't exactly tranquil when flour was affordable.

Biofuels do slightly reduce dependence on imported oil, and the ethanol boom has created rural jobs while enriching some farmers and agribusinesses. But the basic problem with most biofuels is amazingly simple, given that researchers have ignored it until now: using land to grow fuel leads to the destruction of forests, wetlands and grasslands that store enormous amounts of carbon.

Continue reading "Biofuel Crops: A Clean Energy Scam?" »

Best Performing ETFs for the Past Week (2008-04-25)

Trend: Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) led the one week performance (+9%, +5% for 4 weeks, n/a for 13 weeks). Ultra Telecommunications ProShares (LTL) and SPDR S&P China (GXC) were the second and third best performers.

The 20 ETFs with the best 1 week performance through 4/25/2008 tracked by Morningstar are highlighted below.

Source: MSN Money Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Performance Tracker

Name Ticker Category Holdings Morningstar Last Price* 1-Wk 4-Wks 13-Wks YTD 52-Wks 3-Yrs 5-Yrs
Market Vectors Coal ETF KOL Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $45.12 9.37 5.36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Ultra Telecommunications ProShares LTL Specialty - Communications $76.31 8.94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SPDR S&P China GXC Pacific Stock holdings $80.88 7.97 19.61 6.54 -9.98 42.66 N/A N/A
DB Gold Double Short ETN DZZ Specialty - Precious Metals $29.31 7.64 12.21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate TAO Specialty - Real Estate holdings $21.84 7.43 14.35 -4.75 -13.71 N/A N/A N/A
iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index FXI Diversified Emerging Markets holdings 5 stars $158.21 7.37 17.46 6.30 -7.18 45.60 44.50 N/A
UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares SMN Specialty - Unaligned holdings $30.89 6.85 -19.30 -29.53 -18.17 -41.87 N/A N/A
Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap HAO Pacific Stock holdings $24.30 6.81 14.08 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China PGJ Diversified Emerging Markets holdings 2 stars $28.33 6.46 13.55 0.21 -17.28 30.48 31.00 N/A
First Trust NASDAQ-100-Tech Index QTEC Specialty - Technology holdings $20.21 6.33 8.18 8.30 -4.74 -2.15 N/A N/A
HealthShares Metabolic-Endocrine HHM Specialty - Health holdings $17.00 6.24 -0.29 -9.34 -15.72 -35.35 N/A N/A
First Trust ISE Chindia FNI Foreign Stock holdings $23.71 5.38 13.61 0.51 -14.44 N/A N/A N/A
Ultra Real Estate ProShares URE Specialty - Real Estate holdings $38.35 4.64 7.57 22.25 11.69 -37.97 N/A N/A
Adelante Shares RE Composite ETF ACB Specialty - Real Estate holdings $22.38 4.62 2.84 9.09 10.00 N/A N/A N/A
HealthShares Emerging Cancer HHJ Specialty - Health holdings $16.10 4.55 8.34 0.94 -11.39 -41.09 N/A N/A
Claymore/Ocean Tomo Growth OTR Growth holdings $26.14 4.52 5.75 7.26 -7.86 0.91 N/A N/A
PowerShares Dynamic Networking PXQ Specialty - Technology holdings $16.40 4.39 6.27 6.01 -9.09 -12.72 N/A N/A
SPDR S&P Semiconductor XSD Specialty - Technology holdings $43.87 4.38 10.28 11.87 -5.47 -17.30 N/A N/A
HealthShares European Drugs HRJ Specialty - Health holdings $22.39 4.24 7.90 4.77 -3.41 -13.56 N/A N/A
Claymore/Zacks Mid-Cap Core CZA Growth holdings $24.30 4.16 5.19 4.74 -5.96 -7.33 N/A N/A

Disclosure: We may own any EFT above at any time.

Please verify the performance of any ETF before investing.

High Gasoline Prices – Here to Stay?

Trend: In 2008, for the first time, the combined oil consumption of China, India, Russia and the Middle East exceeds U.S. oil consumption.

Chris Nelder, co-author of Profit from the Peak, explains why peak oil is the most important reason that high gasoline prices are here to stay.

Link: High Gasoline Prices Are Here to Stay.

This Earth Day, benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil set a new all-time high over $119, and Tapis (the Malaysian benchmark price Far East crude) shot over $124.

Gasoline prices crossed $3.50 a gallon for the first time, and diesel set a new record over $4.20.

A front page story on the Wall Street Journal declared "the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over," and followed up with several stories about a new crop of suburban farmers who are making their first forays into self-sufficiency. In my book, there's really no better way to celebrate Earth Day than to plant some of your own food.

Five years ago... peak oil was considered a fringe theory, and the financial media were absolutely sure that the market would sort everything out and let us all get back to our "Happy Motoring" fantasies.

Now, as oil hits record high after record high, the Street's own paper of record has admitted that the jig is up. The whole world is finally starting to recognize that we've got a serious problem on our hands, and no amount of "jaw-boning" the Saudis is gonna fix it.

Continue reading "High Gasoline Prices – Here to Stay?" »

Energy in Bakken Formation in North Dakota and Montana : How Much Will It Help?

Trend: The Bakken potential resource will have only a minor effect on US production or imports, providing us with the equivalent of six months of oil consumption or 10 months of imports, spread over 20 or more years.

A petroleum engineer at The Oil Drum analyzes the latest data on the petroleum available in the Bakken Formation. Click on the link below to read the analysis.

Link: The Oil Drum | The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?

Bakken Formation

Conclusions

1. The Bakken shale has produced about 111 million barrels of oil during the last 50+ years in Montana and North Dakota.

2. Total Bakken production is still rising, and producing at the rate of 75,000 BOPD in October 2007.

Continue reading "Energy in Bakken Formation in North Dakota and Montana : How Much Will It Help?" »

Oil might cost $180 a barrel within 2 years

Trend: Oil prices will hit $180 a barrel and gasoline will cost $5.50 a gallon within two years due to the geology and geopolitics of oil producers.

Jim Jubak at MSN Money explains why problems in the global oil supply could take the price of a barrel of crude to $180. Excerpts below.

Link: Why oil could hit $180 a barrel - MSN Money.

...today's $3.50-a-gallon gasoline would look cheap if oil prices hit $180 a barrel. At that price for a barrel of oil, gasoline would cost somewhere north of $5.50 a gallon.

The good news is that's about the price, experts now say, that would send global consumption tumbling and oil prices into retreat, as drivers scrambled to find ways to conserve.

Of course, experts once thought $3-a-gallon gasoline would lead to a drop in consumption. The latest forecast from the International Energy Agency calls for global oil demand of 87.2 million barrels a day this year. That would be an increase in consumption of 1.3 million barrels a day from 2007 -- despite a U.S. economic slowdown and soaring oil prices.

So why do I think oil prices will keep climbing for two more years at least?

A terrible coincidence of geology and geopolitics. Just when oil is getting more expensive to produce, the oil industries in three key countries -- Mexico, Russia and Nigeria -- find themselves short of cash. And without that cash, oil production in these countries, and global oil production in general, is headed into a decline.

Continue reading "Oil might cost $180 a barrel within 2 years" »

Are Inverse ETFs Safe During a Market Meltdown?

Trend: Counterparty bankruptcies increase the risk of some inverse ETFs and bear funds.

Lewis Braham at BusinessWeek magazine describes why some inverse ETFs and bear market funds may not be able to pay out during a market meltdown. Excerpts below.

Note: We have been using the ProShares double inverse of the financials EFT (SKF) to hedge our long positions. This added risk is a concern.

Link: What Your Bear Fund Won't Tell You

To understand the possible consequences of a counterparty going bankrupt, consider how an inverse fund works. ProShares uses derivative contracts called swaps to get the inverse return of indexes such as the Standard & Poor's (MHP) 500-stock index. (A swap promises an exchange of returns between two financial institutions.) To bet against the Nasdaq 100 Index, for instance, a fund would enter into a swap agreement with a counterparty that agrees to pay it 1% for every 1% the Nasdaq falls. On the flip side, the money manager would pay 1% for every 1% rise.

ProShares, Rydex Investments (RYNVX), and Direxion Funds, the three major bear fund players, use swaps extensively. The primary counterparties for all of the market's swap transactions have been hedge funds and investment banks. Since bear funds are designed to protect portfolios during a meltdown, the prospect of a troubled counterparty is potentially problematic.

It's not clear whether a bankrupt counterparty would mean more than a small monetary loss and a big loss in peace of mind. For example, Rydex' swaps typically cover a three-month period, and until a contract expires, gains or losses for either side of the deal are bookkeeping entries—no cash is exchanged. That means the maximum potential loss Rydex could have from a bankrupt counterparty would be three months' worth of gains that the counterparty couldn't pay on an expired contract. Rydex's Harder says in practice this wouldn't happen because the relationships it has with counterparties let it close out a swap position on any day. O'Neill says that holds for Direxion, too.

Continue reading "Are Inverse ETFs Safe During a Market Meltdown?" »

Best Performing ETFs for the Past Week (2008-04-18)

Trend: Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) led the one week performance (+16%, +23% for 4 weeks, 41% for 13 weeks). Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) and Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) were the second and third best performers.

The 20 ETFs with the best 1 week performance through 4/18/2008 tracked by Morningstar are highlighted below.

Source: MSN Money Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Performance Tracker

Name Ticker Category Holdings Morningstar Last Price* 1-Wk 4-Wks 13-Wks YTD 52-Wks 3-Yrs 5-Yrs
Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares DIG Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $112.47 16.06 23.41 40.50 7.75 56.08 N/A N/A
Ultra Technology ProShares ROM Specialty - Technology holdings $63.11 12.54 9.44 3.56 -21.89 -7.55 N/A N/A
Ultra Basic Materials ProShares UYM Specialty - Unaligned holdings $100.77 11.01 19.21 45.32 12.93 40.81 N/A N/A
Oil Services HOLDRs OIH Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $208.80 10.95 18.64 29.21 10.46 37.33 32.05 30.28
Ultra Russell2000 Value ProShares UVT Growth holdings $43.39 10.76 10.53 20.11 -7.85 -35.60 N/A N/A
Ultra Real Estate ProShares URE Specialty - Real Estate holdings $36.65 10.72 15.30 34.82 6.45 -40.85 N/A N/A
Ultra QQQ ProShares QLD Growth holdings $79.29 10.45 14.66 3.38 -20.09 -3.18 N/A N/A
Ultra Financials ProShares UYG Specialty - Financial holdings $32.84 10.31 6.48 6.24 -20.71 -51.79 N/A N/A
iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index IEZ Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $71.77 10.26 18.83 28.46 11.52 42.64 N/A N/A
PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services PXJ Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $30.49 9.84 18.29 26.08 9.96 37.83 N/A N/A
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services XES Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $45.31 9.68 17.78 27.87 11.74 39.17 N/A N/A
Rydex 2x Russell 2000 RRY Growth holdings $59.20 9.47 11.12 11.49 -14.59 N/A N/A N/A
Market Vectors Coal ETF KOL Specialty - Natural Resources holdings $44.93 9.37 5.36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
PowerShares India PIN Income $26.19 9.35 9.99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MACROshares Oil Up Tradeable Shares UCR Specialty - Natural Resources $36.26 9.35 17.44 37.68 20.96 57.83 N/A N/A
First Trust DJ STOXX Select Dividend 30 FDD Europe Stock holdings $27.36 9.05 6.43 -1.64 -8.70 N/A N/A N/A
Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF MOO Growth holdings $64.22 9.05 16.38 28.41 11.80 N/A N/A N/A
Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares UKW Growth