Trend: Widespread adoption of plug-in hybrid vehicles will require signficant investment in the electric power generation and distribution infrastructure.
Brad Allenby at GreenBiz News raises some tough questions about plug-in hybrids increasing the demand for electricity at a time that the power infrastructure doesn't have much excess capacity.
Link: GreenBiz News | Are Plug-In Hybrids a Path to Salvation? Be Careful What You Wish For
The hysteria over climate change, combined with the success of hybrid automotive technologies, is generating huge pressure for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which require no petroleum at all -- locally, at least. Such vehicles are seen, and presented by their proponents, as "emissions free," "carbon neutral," "important moral statements" and otherwise worthy of falling in love with. Embracing this technology with wide-ranging policy measures may work, but it is just as likely, especially given the lack of systems understanding and analysis, that we will find ourselves facing corn ethanol déjà vu.
There's no question that plug-in technology is cool. Despite the technology issues -- most notably finding batteries appropriate to automotive power demands and usage, figuring out viable combinations of on-board power, rapid recharge and in-depth charging infrastructure -- the idea of using clean electricity to phase out one of the most obvious and intractable uses of fossil fuel, without having to do the difficult job of weaning people off cars completely, seems too appealing to pass up.
But there's a much bigger problem, and it's not discussed much. What happens if the activists succeed, and we suddenly lurch towards plug-ins? What kind of electric power production and distribution infrastructure does this demand spike imply (note that coal plants are the most likely and cheap addition to base load capacity under such a scenario)? At what point does the difference in technology time cycles (new car technology can cycle at a couple of years once the technologies are proven; energy infrastructure has half-lives of many decades) break the electric generation and grid systems? And as developed world technology tends to create powerful paths for future technological evolution, does this put countries such as China and India, already struggling to generate sufficient electricity for their development, yet further behind Europe and America? The simplistic answers one gets so far -- "just use solar" -- do not inspire confidence.
It's not that plug-in technology may not be useful at some scale. It's that, by falling in love with the technology, we once again blind ourselves to the questions we need to ask. And because it's not the first time -- cf. biofuel -- we need to ask ourselves some very basic, and very critical, questions about how we intend to rationally, ethically and responsibly face an increasingly complex and challenging anthropogenic planet.
Plug Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) can use otherwise wasted nighttime capacity. Sequestration from power plants is easier than trying to catch CO2 from all the cars. PHEVs will be more energy-efficient than internal combustion engines anyhow, so total energy use is reduced. PHEVs will help people start thinking about global warming solutions. Even seeing large numbers of PHEVs on the road will do it.
Posted by: Peter Buck | March 06, 2008 at 06:27 PM