Trend: The ECRI Weekly Leading Index predicts that the economy is poised for its strongest recovery in more than 30 years.
John Markman says, "...the ECRI weekly leading index is the only gauge of the economy that I have found to have real usefulness as a forecasting tool. Unlike the linear measures that most indexes use, it uses non-parametric measures to look around the corner and figure out what’s coming."
Excerpts below.
Link: Here's Why the U.S. Rebound Will Be Stronger Than You Think - Jon D. Markman
According to the latest data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute, the economy is poised for its strongest recovery in more than 30 years. The monthly growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index is now sitting at a level that has not been witnessed in at least four decades.
That’s big.
It was early in calling the recession two years ago, and caught a lot of heat; and it was early in calling the recovery early this year, and has caught a lot of heat. ECRI chief Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters that with the WLI at new record highs, “the economic recovery will prove to be far more resilient in coming months than most believe possible.”
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