Trends I'm Watching

Where Are We in the Business Cycle?

Trend: Looking at a graph of the Standard Business Cycle, it appears we are at the "Commodity prices rise" point in the progression, approaching the "Inflation rises" segment at the top of the market cycle.

Link: Wall Street Window

Best Performing ETFs for the Past 13 Weeks – 4/1/2011

Trend: Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares (ERX) led the 13-week performance (+50%). ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) and iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN (BAL) were the second and third best performers, respectively.

The 20 ETFs with the best 13 week performance through 4/1/2011 tracked by Morningstar are shown below.

Source: MSN Money Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Performance Tracker 

NAME	TICKER	CATEGORY	HOLDINGS	MORNINGSTAR	LAST PRICE*	1-WK	4-WKS	13-WKS	YTD	52-WK	3-YRS	5-YRS
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares	ERX	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$91.80	3.14	-1.54	50.34	45.81	134.66	N/A	N/A
ProShares Ultra Silver	AGQ	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$219.47	4.93	17.04	43.14	37.46	301.03	N/A	N/A
iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN	BAL	Specialty - Natural Resources			$101.82	-3.08	-2.35	37.09	37.67	161.22	N/A	N/A
ELEMENTS CS Global Warming ETN	GWO	Specialty - Natural Resources			$10.42	11.43	8.96	36.64	20.25	39.20	N/A	N/A
B2B Internet HOLDRs	BHH	Specialty - Technology	holdings		$1.31	7.63	8.55	35.80	36.56	182.28	52.23	16.21
Direxion Daily Nat Gas Rltd Bull 2X Shrs	FCGL	Specialty - Natural Resources			$82.20	1.99	1.82	35.04	33.10	N/A	N/A	N/A
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas	DIG	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$62.94	1.75	-1.40	32.96	30.43	83.86	-11.55	N/A
iShares Silver Trust	SLV	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$36.33	2.52	9.30	22.55	19.91	117.88	26.80	N/A
ETFS Physical Silver Shares	SIVR	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$37.03	2.61	9.30	22.51	20.08	118.09	N/A	N/A
PowerShares DB Silver	DBS	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$65.33	2.71	9.79	21.84	19.56	116.80	25.88	N/A
Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF	KWT	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$13.38	3.59	1.76	21.83	20.84	5.45	N/A	N/A
UBS E-TRACS CMCI Silver TR ETN	USV	Specialty - Precious Metals			$53.10	1.82	10.41	21.64	19.46	121.56	N/A	N/A
PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy	XLES	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$39.98	1.91	3.93	21.15	21.37	N/A	N/A	N/A
United States Brent Oil	BNO	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$77.90	-0.12	2.38	21.14	21.84	N/A	N/A	N/A
United States Heating Oil	UHN	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$36.06	0.42	3.81	20.24	19.56	34.01	N/A	N/A
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod	XOP	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$65.08	1.15	1.30	19.90	18.46	54.24	6.02	N/A
iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index	IEZ	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$68.78	1.38	1.05	19.85	17.75	56.37	3.69	N/A
PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services	PXJ	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$26.77	1.46	3.08	19.84	18.14	60.17	0.27	5.59
Rydex S&P Equal Weight Energy	RYE	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$76.03	1.04	1.12	19.24	17.60	47.95	5.01	N/A
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	XES	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$44.47	1.08	0.76	18.83	16.92	50.35	4.52	N/A

Disclosure: We may own any EFT above at any time.

Please verify the performance of any ETF before investing.

Best Performing ETFs for the Past 4 Weeks – 4/1/2011

Trend: ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan (EWV) led the 4-week performance (+20%). iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Idx ETN (GAZ) and ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) were the second and third best performers, respectively.

The 20 ETFs with the best four week performance through 4/1/2011 tracked by Morningstar are shown below.

Source: MSN Money Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Performance Tracker  

NAME	TICKER	CATEGORY	HOLDINGS	MORNINGSTAR	LAST PRICE*	1-WK	4-WKS	13-WKS	YTD	52-WK	3-YRS	5-YRS
ProShares UltraShort MSCI Japan	EWV	Pacific Stock	holdings		$36.17	6.85	20.42	5.27	6.85	-14.42	-19.43	N/A
iPath DJ-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Idx ETN	GAZ	Specialty - Natural Resources			$8.87	10.04	17.77	10.04	6.21	-11.31	-48.21	N/A
ProShares Ultra Silver	AGQ	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$225.80	4.93	17.04	43.14	37.46	301.03	N/A	N/A
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shrs	DRV	Specialty - Real Estate	holdings		$14.25	1.97	11.75	-15.02	-13.94	-64.00	N/A	N/A
PowerShares Global Wind Energy	PWND	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$11.61	2.25	11.68	17.56	15.31	-13.45	N/A	N/A
First Trust Global Wind Energy	FAN	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$11.97	3.53	11.60	17.17	14.54	-11.01	N/A	N/A
UBS E-TRACS CMCI Silver TR ETN	USV	Specialty - Precious Metals			$53.74	1.82	10.41	21.64	19.46	121.56	N/A	N/A
Direxion Daily Semicondct Bear 3X Shares	SOXS	Specialty - Technology	holdings		$60.10	-8.62	10.24	-25.79	-25.22	-67.67	N/A	N/A
Direxion Daily India Bull 2X Shares	INDL	Foreign Stock	holdings		$44.98	8.01	10.13	-13.09	-18.52	-0.43	N/A	N/A
Barclays Short D Lvgd Inv S&P 500 TR ETN	BXDD	Growth			$15.08	-8.46	9.98	-31.54	-31.75	-56.93	N/A	N/A
PowerShares DB Agriculture Dble Shrt ETN	AGA	Specialty - Natural Resources			$16.32	0.29	9.93	0.76	-1.58	-62.60	N/A	N/A
iPath Short Enhanced MSCI EAFE ETN	MFSA	Growth			$75.07	-0.49	9.87	-9.00	-7.16	N/A	N/A	N/A
PowerShares DB Silver	DBS	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$66.36	2.71	9.79	21.84	19.56	116.80	25.88	N/A
ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil	UCO	Specialty - Natural Resources	holdings		$58.52	1.35	9.67	8.28	7.80	11.14	N/A	N/A
ETFS Physical Silver Shares	SIVR	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$37.57	2.61	9.30	22.51	20.08	118.09	N/A	N/A
iShares Silver Trust	SLV	Specialty - Precious Metals	holdings		$36.86	2.52	9.30	22.55	19.91	117.88	26.80	N/A
VelocityShares Long VIX Medium Term ETN	VIIZ	Growth			$87.26	0.00	9.29	-3.93	-3.84	N/A	N/A	N/A
iPath Global Carbon ETN	GRN	Specialty - Natural Resources			$28.99	-8.06	9.15	15.24	11.59	21.33	N/A	N/A
EGShares India Small Cap	SCIN	Foreign Stock	holdings		$19.93	5.44	9.07	-10.46	-13.64	N/A	N/A	N/A
ELEMENTS CS Global Warming ETN	GWO	Specialty - Natural Resources			$11.40	11.43	8.96	36.64	20.25	39.20	N/A	N/A

Disclosure: We may own any EFT above at any time.

Please verify the performance of any ETF before investing.