Trends I'm Watching

TI's Green Dream in Texas

Trend: In a high-energy cost era, green factories can cost less to build and maintain than traditional factories.

In a column titled A Green Dream in Texas, Thomas L. Friedman describes how Texas Instruments built a factory to be very efficient by applying green principles (excerpts below).

Link: The NY Times

The most impressive project I’ve seen is by Texas Instruments, which is building a “green” chip factory here in Richardson, near Dallas. T.I. is keeping 1,000 high-tech jobs in Texas by building its newest facility – to make wafers used in semiconductors – in a cost-saving, hyper-efficient green manner.

T.I. always wanted to keep its newest wafer factory near Dallas so it would be near its design center and ideas could flow back and forth. But China, Taiwan and Singapore were all tempting alternatives, offering low wages, subsidies and tax breaks. So the T.I. leadership laid down a challenge: T.I. could locate its new wafer factory in Richardson, if the T.I. design team and community leaders could find a way to build it for $180 million less than its last Dallas factory, erected in the late 1990’s. That would make its cost-per-wafer competitive with any overseas plant’s.

Although the T.I. engineers initially thought it impossible, they pulled it off. Previous chip factories had three floors because of the complicated cooling and manufacturing process involved in making wafers. The T.I. design team came up with a way to build the Richardson factory with just two floors – a huge savings in mass and energy. T.I. also contacted Amory Lovins, the green designer who heads the Rocky Mountain Institute, and asked him to help it design other parts of the plant in a way that would lower its resource consumption, which, over the life of a plant, can exceed construction outlays.

Together, T.I. engineers and Mr. Lovins’s team designed big water pipes with fewer elbows, which reduced friction loss and let them use smaller pumps that save energy. Various passive solar innovations were built in, including roofs that use a white reflective coating to reduce heat. These, together with innovations in how air is circulated, cooled and recovered naturally, reduced total heat so much that T.I. was able to get rid of one huge industrial air-conditioner. Almost all of the waste from the building construction is being recycled. The urinals are all waterless.

Google's Next Big Move

Trend: Internet search and television could take advertising to a new level of personalization.

Robert X. Cringely speculates about Google's ultimate goal. This strategy might be the source of the great optimism about Google's stock price.

Source: PBS | I, Cringely . January 5, 2006 - A Commercial Runs Through It

How often do you see an ad on TV for something you're currently in the market for? I'm guessing almost never. But imagine if everyone watching "American Idol" only saw ads for things they might really buy? Or, better yet, only saw ads for things they had already expressed an interest in? The value of those same 30-second commercial slots would increase by orders of magnitude.

Google is going to let the telco and cable companies burn their capital building out IP-TV, knowing that Google will still be the only game in town for the crux of the whole thing: the ability to show every viewer the specific ads that companies will pay the most to show him at that specific moment. What Google wants to do with these trailers is SERVE EVERY TV COMMERCIAL ON THE PLANET because only they will be able to do it efficiently. Only they will have the database that converts those IP addresses into sales leads, only they will have the servers and disk space close enough to the viewers to feed the ads. Only Google will have the chops to run a constant, real-time auction for the next ad every consumer is about to see, and then serve that ad at the moment the program goes to commercial.

Suddenly, everybody can (and, really, must) advertise on TV, because it'll be so specific...and so dynamic.

...Google will cut a deal with every network to customize their ad spots for every viewer. For a small cut of their ad revenues, Google will handle all customization costs, hardware and software. The networks will all go along because the customized ads will be so much more profitable that it would make no sense for any network to refuse.

If I'm right, Google's current business will have been nothing more than a great test-bed for what will turn out to be their real business, which will be IP-TV ads. Program choice is just the Trojan horse that will be used to sell this to viewers; the essence of the IP-TV buildout is the fully domesticated consumer.

Far scarier, of course, is that Google will be handling all political advertising, and will eventually be helping networks customize their news offerings, too.

Futurists Pick Top Tech Trends

Source: Wired News: Futurists Pick Top Tech Trends.

Simplicity: Over the past couple of decades, gadget makers have toiled ceaselessly to add functionality. As a result, your cell phone can now play games, do math and sound off like a barking dog when your ex calls. Your digital camera can shoot extremely poor-quality video. And nearly every device you own with a screen also contains a clock. The problem, says Ian Pearson, futurist in residence at British Telecommunications, is that most people buy a device for a particular purpose. They neither want nor care about all the extra capabilities.

Mobile socialization: Already our cell phones and PDAs work well at both contributing to our social lives (i.e., getting in touch with friends) and spoiling them (i.e., meeting friends but ignoring them to answer cell-phone calls).

But according to futurists, we've only scratched the surface of figuring out how our portable communications devices can be of service.

R.I.P. combustion engine?: Gas-guzzling cars and trucks are such an integral part of the modern landscape that we practically take them for granted. When you think about it, that's a pretty amazing feat, considering the noise and smog they generate.

At some point, escalating fuel prices, surging global oil demand and a dwindling supply of easily accessible crude will take their toll, however. That point is closer than ever, says Jennifer Jarratt, a partner at Leading Futurists.

IT revolution of 2006: Even futurists sometimes prefer the short-term horizon. Pearson, for one, expects 2006 will bring one of the more fascinating inflection points in the evolution of digital technology.

"We see the convergence of a whole stack of IT trends," said Pearson, who's gearing up for what he calls "the 2006 IT explosion." Basically, the explosion will consist of a number of technologies: better screens, improved location technology and highly sophisticated gaming consoles that provide a hub for home entertainment.

via Emergic.org

MSN Unveils New Search Features

Source: INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

Microsoft (MSFT) might not have to search hard to find advertisers for its new paid search service.

On Tuesday, the firm is expected to unveil its first such service.

And it will outdo competing services from Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) in two major respects: It will let advertisers reach segments of consumers according to age and gender, and it will let them reach consumers based on previous shopping habits.

So say online marketing executives who have seen the service in action, Microsoft's bid to grab a big chunk of paid search ad revenue.

Google and Yahoo don't include these targeting features in their paid search programs. Many search marketers are bullish on the upcoming service from Microsoft's MSN.

A Third Entry in the DVD Format War

Source: Investor's Business Daily stock analysis and business news

Seeking to break foreign companies' hold on the industry, and avoid expensive royalties, China says it will develop its own next-generation DVD format. The move further complicates an already heated battle between 2 competing formats backed by corporate giants: HD DVD promoted by Toshiba, Universal Studios, Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) ; and Blu-ray, which is backed by Sony, (SNE) Apple Computer, (AAPL) Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell. (DELL)

New derivative of the Cherry Sage shrub optimized for absorbing pollutants

Trend: Toyota continues to lead the auto makers.

Source: Green Car Congress

Kirsch Pink

Toyota Motor Corp has developed a derivative of the Cherry Sage shrub that is optimized for absorbing pollutants from the air.

The new Kirsch Pink plant is reportedly 1.3 times more effective at absorbing NO_x, SO₂ and other air pollutants than its parent stock, the Cherry Sage. The new plant, which flowers between May and November, also diminishes the urban heat-island effect 1.3 times more effectively than the Cherry Sage, according to the company.

The Kirsch Pink is the work of Toyota Roof Garden, established in 2001 as one of the businesses in Toyota’s Biotechnology and Afforestation portfolio.

Toyota’s Biotech Efforts

Toyota established its Biotechnology and Afforestation Business Department and began research and development in January 1998. In May 1999, the Toyota Biotechnology and Afforestation Laboratory was established to layout the framework for research and development in the agricultural biotechnology field and to speed up Toyota’s biotechnology business.

Key Emerging Technologies in 2005 Hype Cycle

Source: Gartner Highlights Key Emerging Technologies in 2005 Hype Cycle

The Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle covers the entire IT spectrum, but Gartner has identified three key technology themes businesses should watch as well as highlighting some of the individual technologies in those areas. Technologies that will enable the development of Collaboration, Next Generation Architecture and Real World Web are highlighted as being particularly significant.

Collaboration
A number of key collaboration technologies designed to improve productivity and ultimately transform business practices are identified in the Hype Cycle:

• Podcasting
• Peer to Peer (P2P) voice over IP (VoIP)
• Desktop Search
• Really Simple Syndication (RSS
• Corporate Blogging
• Wikis

Next Generation Architecture
David Cearly, research vice president at Gartner believes that Next Generation Architecture will constitute the third big era in the IT industry's history (the first having been the hardware era and second belonging to software). These emerging technologies will form key pillars of the new architecture:

• Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)
• Web Services-Enabled Business Models
• Extensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL)
• Business Process Platforms (BPP)

Real World Web
Ms Fenn believes that adding networking, sensing and processing to real-world objects and places is creating a 'Real-World-Web' of information that will enhance business and personal decision-making. Ms Fenn highlighted three technologies from the 2005 Hype Cycle that will help to make this a reality:

• Location-aware applications
• Radio Frequency Identification (Passive)
• Mesh Networks — Sensor

Turning Waste Into Watts

Link: Business 2.0 :: Magazine Article :: Features :: Turning Waste Into Watts.

At no point in its life cycle -- from assembly to operation to disposal -- has the internal-combustion automobile ever been accused of sparing the planet. That is, until a recent breakthrough from Ford (F) Motor. By recycling a by-product of its manufacturing process, a Ford plant near Detroit is now generating enough electricity to power two homes a day. Any day now, a second Ford site should be producing sufficient power to light an entire city block. The secret? Taking paint fumes and converting them into electricity -- using, of all things, an external-combustion engine invented by a Scottish clergyman nearly 200 years ago.

Here’s how it works: To comply with smog-control laws, automakers must capture and dispose of paint fumes before they seep into the air. Typically the contaminants are burned -- a highly imperfect process, given that the natural gas used to incinerate the fumes is expensive and that hydrocarbons, a potential energy source, are wasted. But two years ago, a Ford plant in Dearborn, Mich., tried something different. Before burning the pollutants, Ford stripped out the hydrocarbons and, using fuel-cell technology, converted them into energy-rich hydrogen gas. Then the hydrogen was combined with oxygen to produce a chemical reaction that generated about 5,000 watts of power an hour.

That’s not much for a plant that consumes 15 million watts or more per day. But volume wasn’t the point, says Mark Wherrett, the Ford engineer who led the project. The company first wanted to make sure that the technology worked. Now Ford is taking it to the next level: A truck plant just coming online in Wayne, Mich., is expected to start converting paint fumes into about 55,000 watts per hour.

One key difference from the Dearborn project: Instead of fuel cells, the Wayne plant will use a cheaper but less efficient Stirling engine as its power generator. (Physics buffs will recall that the Stirling was invented in the early 19th century but has never been widely used for commercial purposes.) Next Ford plans to employ its fumes-to-fuel technology at a plant in Ontario that’s slated for renovation in 2007. The estimated output, Wherrett says: a whopping 100,000 watts an hour.

Ford won’t reveal financial details, but insiders say the three plants should save the company several million dollars a year. And the technology might provide a boost on the revenue side too. Ford and partner Detroit Edison have applied for five patents on the process in hopes that it can be sold to other smog producers like oil refineries, paper mills, and semiconductor fabs. To bring it to market, they’ve hooked up with Climate Technologies, a $10 million Michigan company that has licensed the technology and will pay Ford and Detroit Edison a royalty on each sale -- a market that Climate CEO Walt Zimmerman estimates at $2 billion by 2015. “I’m sober to the fact that there’s a lot of work to be done,” Zimmerman says, “but for a small company like ours, this opportunity is a dream come true.”

Minipreneurs

Source: TRENDWATCHING.COM Newsletter | Global Consumer and Marketing Trends | September 2005.

Trendwatch.com identifies Minipreneurs:

...A vast army of consumers turning entrepreneurs; including small and micro businesses, freelancers, side-businesses, weekend entrepreneurs, web-driven entrepreneurs, part-timers, free agents, cottage businesses, seniorpreneurs, co-creators, mompreneurs, pro-ams, solopreneurs, eBay traders, advertising-sponsored bloggers and so on.

Numbers

• According to a July 2005 survey conducted by eBay, more than 724,000 Americans report that eBay is their primary or secondary source of income. In addition to these professional eBay sellers, another 1.5 million individuals say they supplement their income by selling on eBay.
• Over 50,000 people in the UK draw a significant portion of their income from selling goods online. A study by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) shows that the average household boosts its earnings by GBP 3,000 through online trading.
• And Mastercard and Warillow International published a research study on a new class of small business: the 'Web-Driven Entrepreneur', estimating that there are 5 million of these businesses in the United States, representing 25% of all small businesses.

Drivers

1. Multinationals of one
2. Being in control of one's destiny
3. Enterprising is chic
4. Experience rules, and so does less risk
5. A need for the unusual

MINIPRENEURS truly have a highly-developed network of intermediaries, tools, resources, and processes at their disposal. It's an ecosystem on a much more elaborate scale than anyone foresaw even five years ago when entrepreneurialism was all the rage during the .com boom. MINIPRENEURS have access, for peanuts, if not for free, to:

A. Hardware, software, ICT and skills
B. Design, production and manufacturing
C. Monetizing existing assets
D. Marketplaces
E. Advertising
F. Travel
G. Talent, finance, payment, logistics

With more MINIPRENEURS springing up every hour (keep an extra keen eye on the 50+ crowd), 'new' business models will continue to emerge: from aggregation models (if MINIPRENEURS unite, they can demand discounts just like large corporations do; there's definitely an opportunity to resurrect letsbuyit.com) to more sophisticated bartering, to new style incubators helping MINIPRENEURS get their ideas and inventions to market.

RELATED TRENDS
GENERATION C
CUSTOMER-MADE
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Apple Introduces iTunes Phone

Source: Investor's Business Daily stock analysis and business news.

The iTunes phone holds only about 100 songs. But it includes nifty features, such as automatically pausing the music when you get a call.

Users can easily switch from phone to music and back again with the push of a dedicated music key. The iTunes software on the Rokr phone features simple menus, navigation and playback. It has a color display for viewing album art or photos. Users can listen to music while text messaging friends or taking photos with the built-in camera.

The iTunes phone "points to an entirely new direction for Apple," said Peter Rojas, editor in chief of Engadget, a Web magazine devoted to consumer electronics. "It's important because cell phones are absorbing so much of the functionality of other devices."

Apple was forced to come out with a music phone because of the realities of the market, Rojas says. "Apple realizes that if you don't cannibalize your own business somebody else will," he said.

Apple sells millions of iPods every year, but the cell phone industry sells hundreds of millions of handsets, Rojas says.

Many casual music listeners might not be interested in getting an iPod, but they might like a cell phone that doubles as a music player, he says.